130 million voters, historical stakes, and New Delhi’s calculated reassessment of the BNP
India is on high alert as Bangladesh prepares for national elections on February 12 the first since a student-led uprising toppled Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. For New Delhi, the outcome carries profound strategic weight.
Nearly 130 million Bangladeshis will vote across 43,000 polling stations under an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The political landscape has shifted dramatically, with the late Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), now led by her son Tarique Rahman, positioned as a major contender. India has historically viewed the BNP with suspicion, preferring Hasina’s Awami League, rooted in the 1971 liberation war when India intervened militarily to help Bangladesh gain independence from Pakistan.
That intervention triggered by a brutal crackdown and the exodus of 10 million refugees into West Bengal cemented deep ties between the two nations. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s decisive action led to Pakistan’s surrender in Dhaka within two weeks, birthing Bangladesh.
Now, with Hasina exiled in Delhi and political realities forcing recalibration, India must navigate a Bangladesh that may no longer be led by old allies.
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