In the narrow lanes of Phulwari Sharif and the bustling markets of Kishanganj, the question lingers on every street corner: “Iss baar hum kisey vote den?” Whom do we vote for this time? For Bihar’s 18% Muslim population, this is no ordinary election. Once a decisive, united force shaping outcomes in nearly 80 constituencies, the community now finds itself splintered, disillusioned, and searching for real political agency.
For decades, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) was the home of Bihar’s Muslim electorate. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s “MY” (Muslim–Yadav) alliance was more than strategy ,it was identity, protection, and recognition rolled into one. But in 2025, cracks are evident.
Muslims have been offered only 18 RJD tickets and 10 Congress tickets, making up just 11.9% of the Mahagathbandhan slate. The sense of being “used but sidelined” is palpable. Young, urban, and increasingly aspirational voters are questioning their automatic allegiance.
Seizing the moment, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party are presenting themselves as alternatives that promise dignity, proportional representation, and a seat at the table. AIMIM focuses on Muslim-heavy districts of Seemanchal and Mithilanchal, while Jan Suraaj’s “40–20” initiative appeals to voters weary of tokenism. The once-unified Muslim bloc now faces a realignment in search of respect, not just security.
Beyond party politics, institutional factors threaten to dilute the community’s influence. Analyses of the 2025 voter roll revision show that voters with Muslim-sounding names were removed at rates 50% higher than the general population. In Seemanchal districts like Kishanganj, Araria, and Katihar, over 14,000 names disappeared.
The result is a community caught between political sidelining and structural invisibility, raising concerns that Bihar’s Muslims are being quietly erased from the democratic narrative at a time when every vote count
The Mahagathbandhan still commands the loyalty of 75–80% of Muslim voters, but 15–20% may swing to AIMIM or Jan Suraaj, enough to tip margins in tight contests. The NDA, meanwhile, has effectively ceded Muslim outreach, relying on a solid Hindu cross-caste base, Nitish Kumar’s enduring EBC Mahadalit appeal, and a fragmented opposition.
October 2025 polls suggest the NDA could capture 140–150 seats, comfortably above the majority. The opposition’s internal friction, weak messaging, and leadership fatigue limit its capacity to harness anti-incumbency, even in its traditional strongholds.
About The Author
